Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
